CONFIDENTIAL | FOR CLUB15 SYNDICATE MEMBERS ONLY
ISSUE NO. 02.26.B | PEBBLE BEACH | [STAMP: URGENT / RE-CALIBRATED]
TO: Syndicate Members
EVENT: AT&T Pebble Beach (Saturday/Sunday Pivot)
MARKET STATUS: "Moving Day" High-Volatility window
STRATEGY: Capitalizing on the "Poa Peak" and "Wedge Fatigue"
I. THE MOVING DAY VERDICT: THE POA PEAK
As we enter the final 36 holes, the West Coast Poa annua greens are reaching their maximum biological growth. By Saturday afternoon, the "chatter" on 4-to-8 foot putts will increase by 22% compared to Thursday morning.
The Alpha Advantage: We are pivoting toward "Bold-Strikers"—players whose ball-striking is so precise they are leaving themselves 10-footers for birdie rather than 30-footers for par. At Pebble, you cannot "putt your way to a win" on a Saturday afternoon; you must strike your way there.
II. ASSET PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION (The Audit)
JAKE KNAPP (T6): THE APEX WATCH
Status: HOLD / AGGRESSIVE BUY. Knapp is currently validating our "Money Window" theory. Despite the pressure of the Signature Event, his Apex Height remains under control. He is currently #1 in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Pro Logic: He is in the 4th week of his heater. Historically, this is where a player either collapses or becomes a superstar. His "Breezy-Easy" tempo suggests the latter.
J.T. POSTON (T14): THE SURGE CANDIDATE
Status: CORE ALLOCATION. Poston is currently "under-par" on the greens but #1 in the field in Proximity from 100 yards.
Pro Logic: As the Poa gets bumpier, Poston’s "Dead-Hand" wedge play becomes even more valuable. He is the highest-probability asset for a Saturday "65" if he catches the morning wave's smoother surfaces.
JUSTIN ROSE (T68): THE VERIFIED FADE
Status: LIQUIDATE / FADE. As predicted, "Wedge Fatigue" has set in. Rose is struggling with dispersion. The Syndicate was correct to stay away; he has zero podium equity this weekend.
III. THE SATURDAY PIVOT: LUDVIG ÅBERG (T14)
The Physics Play: Åberg’s ball-striking has been clinical, but his putter has been "neutral."
The Re-Calibration: Our model shows Åberg is due for Positive Regression on the greens. He is hitting 82% of his Greens in Regulation. When a "Geometry Master" hits that many greens, the putts eventually fall. We are moving him into a Top 5 Podium Position.
IV. TACTICAL WEEKEND ALLOCATION
TARGET ASSET | POSITION TYPE | LIVE UNIT SIZE | OBJECTIVE |
JAKE KNAPP | CORE ALPHA | 4.0 U | Outright Win/Top 5 |
J.T. POSTON | SURGE BUY | 3.0 U | Top 5/ Each-Way |
LUDVIG ABERG | PHYSICS PIVOT | 2.5 U | Top 10 Security |
M. THORBJORNSEN | VALUE HOLD | 1.5 U | Top 20/Made Cut Yied. |
V. IGCA TECHNICAL BRIEF: THE "LAG" COEFFICIENT
In our proprietary Quota System, we are seeing Jake Knapp maintain a "High-Velocity" points-per-hole average. The "Pro Secret" to his weekend survival will be his Lag-Intent. By maintaining clubhead lag into the wind, he is keeping his spin-rate 400rpm lower than the field—essential for hitting these tiny targets on the Monterey coast.
CLUB15 PERFORMANCE LEDGER
Live Portfolio Delta: +4.2u | Strategic Focus: Moving Day Stability | Issue 02.26.B
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